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After lots of discussion, we have settled on switching from ckeditor 4 to ckeditor 5 for the following reasons:

1. We are not looking to radically change the editor experience (i.e. gutenburg) since we already have the layouts module approach in core. If we did decide to take a gutenberg-ish approach that could be done as its own initiative and not tied to a major release cycle.

2. Drupal and ckeditor already have a good working relationship (support cycles, security etc.), and ckeditor are actively trying to address upgrade path issues for their own needs too.

3. Any editor with its own semantic data model will require an upgrade path from ckeditor 4 (and any other 'blob of HTML'), but there is no indication that any alternative editor will support this, whereas ckeditor is trying to address it.

4. There was not strong support for any alternative editor or indication that anyone was interested in working on it.

Remaining tasks